Bad Print, Lira Pass-Through Continues

TURKEY - Report 03 Oct 2013 by Murat Ucer
At 0.8%, CPI-inflation came in at somewhat higher than consensus, but broadly in line with our forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless edged down to 7.9%, from 8.2% in August, thanks to last year’s elevated base. Notably, at 0.7%, core inflation -- measured by the I-index that excludes food, tobacco & alcohol, energy, and gold – was even higher than we had forecasted, which meant another sharp increase in the 12-month rate to 7%, from 6.4% in August. The main culprit is the exchange rate pass-through, but some second-round effects from lira weakness might also be at play. The PPI inflation...

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