BAHRAIN: Q1 GDP outturn is worse than it initially looks

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 Jul 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

Bahrain’s GDP contracted by -1.1% y/y in Q1, similar to Saudi's but much less than Dubai's. One bright point was growth in oil & gas, due to increased gas output to power Alba’s expansion. Hotels contracted by a stunning -68% y/y, which is probably a substantial overestimate. However, the rest of the critical trade and hospitality sector was far weaker than Saudi. Financial services saw their worst quarterly decline since the Arab Spring. Government services contracted by far less than in Q4, raising doubts about fiscal consolidation efforts.

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