Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso

ECUADOR - In Brief 31 Mar 2021 by Magdalena Barreiro

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A summary of different polls carried out during the past week and weekend shows that political trends for Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso changed after the debate that took place on March 21st.Around 63% of citizens from Quito and Guayaquil watched the entire debate from which 34% thinks Lasso won while 25% preferred Arauz, but 40% disliked both.As a result, while before the mentioned debate Arauz led vote intention with a difference of 11% on average, after the debate this difference shrunk to 3.4% (Charts 1 and 2 below).Two polls give an advantage to Lasso:Click Report and Cedatos.Both have very good reputation but Click Report conducted the surveys face to face only in Quito and Guayaquil.Arauz continue leading in Guayaquil with 46% over the 35% for Lasso.On the other hand, Lasso has 40% in Quito versus 37% for Arauz.These numbers imply that Lasso has grown around 10% in Guayaquil and thanks to the change in his campaign for this second round, has captured a larger number of the undecided votes than Arauz.In a meeting held yesterday, 26 out of 32 national leaders from Izquierda Democratica, the party from Xavier Hervas who finished fourth with 16% in the first round, decided to support Guillermo Lasso, which gave green light for a meeting between Hervas and Lasso.Albeit, voters might or might not follow what leaders decide, we believe this is an encouraging message. Chart 1: Results before Debate Perfiles Opinion Eureknow Click Report Comunicaliza Omar Maluk Average Arauz 43.15 53.7 37.11 55.5 58.7 49.63 Lasso 23.75 46.3 37.37 44.5 41.3 38.64 Date 24-Feb 13-Mar 14-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar (10.99) Chart 2: Results after Debate Perfiles Opinion Clima Social Click Report Com...