Betting on a return to normality, with the Delta variant so far nowhere in sight
With the decrease in the number of COVID-19 infections, the rise in the number of vaccinated people and amid strong public pressure, the government has been gradually lifting mobility restrictions. Authorities have indicated that so far the Delta variant is not circulating in the country. But with Delta spreading rapidly through the world, there is a risk of its eventual arrival.
Although economic activity showed a significant interannual expansion of 12.7% in June 2021 from June 2020, the monthly variation in June 2021 from May 2021 was -0.9, after taking seasonality into account. But it remains to be seen for how long the momentum in economic activity growth, up 13.3% in H1 2021 from H1 2020, will persist in H2 2021. Formal employment showed meager growth in June, despite economic expansion, while y/y inflation fell below 10% in June and July, a fact interpreted by the authorities as a sign that price increases are transitory.
On the political level, the prosecution of new cases of corruption continued, with former Attorney General Jean Alain Rodriguez accused of fraud against the state. Government actions are also beginning to be questioned, among them the increase in the minimum wage, and the 2020 expansion of public debt.
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