Beware of Headwinds Ahead

MEXICO - Report 04 Mar 2015 by Mauricio Gonzalez, Guillermo Valdes, Esteban Manteca and Ernesto Cervera
Executive Summary Economic activity firmed further through 2014, the latest data reveals, though some sectors suffered setbacks, and all analysts have lowered their growth forecasts for 2015. GDP rose 2.6% in Q4 2014, driven by growth in all three major sectors, and despite weakness in extractive industries. The economy grew 2.1% for the year. We project that the economy will grow 2.8% in 2015, on the strength of commerce (3.9%) and manufacturing (3.6%). Manufacturing employment and payrolls have continued to grow in recent months, though there have been signs of erosion in wages and benefi...

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