Beyond the Russian threat, monetary tapering looms
The threat of a Russian invasion has dominated the headlines for several months now. Ukraine still sees Russia deploying more troops and combat support elements on its border as a big bargaining game, and Ukrainian officials do not expect Russia to undertake serious military action. However, the strong media attack the United States has launched, though badly needed and really helpful in preventing an actual offensive, is turning Ukraine into a toxic asset for investors, and by itself complicates financial conditions.
The impact of the media interventions is so strong that many local opinion makers have started complaining about the negative influence of the apocalyptic warnings from Washington. What can be done with foreign partners, when the U.S. Embassy moves its staff evacuated from Kyiv to Lviv, and the whole world expects Ukraine to be under bombardment at any moment? The reality is not as dramatic as it’s depicted in leading world media.
At least in Kyiv, people keep leading normal lives, while trying to understand why there’s so much noise around Russian troops that have never stopped threatening Ukraine since 2014.
Against this backdrop, we will not speculate about Russian incursions, but look beyond this big media war, and provide a forecast with the assumption that the state of Ukraine will survive in 2022—and in 2023 as well.
Now read on...
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