Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN
- In Brief
15 Oct 2025
by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Oct 2 OPEC+: Kazakhstan's "debt" to compensate for the shortfall in OPEC+ production rose to 2.9 mln bpd, with “repayment” peaking in the 1H26. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is not yet meeting OPEC+ compensation schedules, but is making every effort. KMG: Kazakh oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline reached 0.9 mln tons in 9M25, and is expected to reach 1.2 mln tons by year-end. KMG: Kazakhstan intends to supply 1.7 mln tons of oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline by the end of 2025. Ministry of Agriculture: Kazakhstan harvested 19.8 mln tons of grain by Oct 1 from 79.3% of the total area. Last year it harvested 26.5 mln tons. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan anticipates oil production in 2026 of about 90 mln tons (vs 96.2 mln tons in 2025 and 87.7 mln tons in 2024). Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan wants to increase oil supplies via Aktau-Baku-Ceyhan route to 1.7 mln tons in 2025. Oct 3 National pipeline company: Kazakhstan reduced oil exports to Germany by 5.3% m-o-m, to 180K tons in September. President: Kazakhstan favors OPEC+ decision to gradually increase oil production volumes. Energy Ministry: By 2040, Kazakhstan wants to double its refining capacity. Oct 7 KMG: Kazakhstan rolled over an agreement with Germany for oil supply. According to the document, monthly volume will be increased from 100 mln tons to 130K tons in 2026. In the first nine months of 2025 the average amount of monthly supply was about 166K tons. World Bank: The Bank raised the forecast of Kazakhstan's GDP growth for 2025 to 5.5% (from 4.5%) and to 4.5% in 2026 (from 3.6%). Oct 8 CPC: The company has adjusted its oil transfer plan for 2025, reducing it from 76 to 74 million tons. Regardi...
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