Bloomberg reports potential Russian invasion in Ukraine: what’s going on?

UKRAINE - In Brief 12 Nov 2021 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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Bloomberg published an article “U.S. Warns Europe That Russia May Plan Ukraine Invasion”. The author uses really tough and even scary wording trying to give a message that “there’s no way of knowing Moscow’s true intentions” but the Kremlin is building military forces at the border of Ukraine and this might be an indication of a possible military operation. Firstly, it’s good that Bloomberg shed more light on what is happening at our eastern border. Because after repetitive messages from German officials that Ukrainian soldiers should not irritate Moscow by shooting invaders we have confusing feelings about support from the west. Secondly, the situation at the east had not aggravated or changed dramatically compared to what we have been observing over the last year when Kremlin brought more military forces closer to Ukraine. Skirmishes happen regularly, but local media do not see any intensification of fights with pro-Russian proxies. Why Bloomberg decided that situation is moving to worse – it’s not clear. Maybe Bloomberg has some evidence we do not have. Thirdly, indeed you never know what is in the heads of Russians, especially in the heads of those Russians sitting in the Kremlin. However, in our view, starting a winter military campaign is an improbable decision even for our unpredictable eastern neighbor. Winter offensives used to be costly affairs, and it’s not clear why Kremlin might decide to pay the extra price with the lives of Russian soldiers just now without any delay. Thus it looks like all the moves are more dedicated to the bargains of Kremlin on Nord Stream 2 to speed up the process of the pipeline launch. I would say that the risks of a new campaign ...