Is Auxílio Brasil enough for Bolsonaro and other weekly topics
Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco decide on the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC. The government is waiting for the decision to begin issuing Auxílio Brasil payments this week. The House may vote on Refis. In the economy, the Central Bank's final meeting of the year to decide on the interest rate will take place.
This week's Talking Points:
• Lula-Alckmin alliance.
The ex-governor of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, is expected to announce his decision to leave the PSDB in the next few days. There are currently two possible new parties for him: the PSD or the PSB. This choice will define his political future in 2022. In the most recent Ipespe poll (11/29 to 12/1), Alckmin led in one of the polled scenarios with 23%.
• Moves by the third candidates.
Former Minister Sergio Moro (Podemos) continues his moves as a pre-candidate for the Planalto Palace. Last week, he attended a dinner with the financial sector. In his speeches, he has defended the fight against corruption and poverty, in addition to presenting a liberal vision for the economy. At this moment, he is the third candidate with the most support and the best position in voting intention polls. It is no coincidence that he has become the preferred target of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is seeking re-election.
• Is Auxílio Brasil enough for Bolsonaro?
The approval of the Precatórios PEC in the Senate, which paves the way for the Auxílio Brasil payments in the amount of R$ 400 – combined with the gas voucher, in the amount of R$ 52.00 – has the potential to improve Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity among voters. Parallel to the expansion of income distribution programs, President Bolsonaro gave in to political pragmatism by joining the PL, signaling that he will have the PP and the Republicanos as allies. Thus, he will be able to count on TV time and party structure, in addition to social media – Bolsonaro’s main channel for mobilizing his supporters. Despite these instruments of power, there are variables that are challenging for Bolsonaro.
• Year-end "fiscal bombs" in the legislature.
The federal tax collection records achieved in 2021 may not be repeated next year if some matters in the legislature are approved by the end of the year. If the market's pessimistic forecasts for the next year’s economy are confirmed, a possible drop in revenues caused by such proposals should worsen the profile of public accounts. The Executive Branch is obliged to support some proposals, as these are part of the post-pandemic economic recovery.
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