​Brunson or sanctions?

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Oct 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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Until the blood bath in Wall Street infected them, TL denominated assets largely outperformed EM peers despite an anti-inflation program full of hot air, primarily because global investors believe American Pastor Mr. Brunson will be released in his court hearing on Friday. In my last remarks on the subject, I assigned very low odds to such an outcome; based on President Erdogan’s very strong statements during his speech at the opening of the Grand assembly, implicating him in terror activities. Over the last few days, new developments transpired in the case, which allows me to update my prediction of his release to “a coin flip”. It also appears that Trump has run out of patience, poised to slap Turkey with additional sanctions, if Brunson is detained in Turkey. So far, three Turkish columnists have expressed rather strong views that Brunson will be released. Mr. Abdulkadir Selvi is an openly pro-AKP columnist writing at Hurriyet Daily, who personally attended AKP’s brain-storming session in Kizilcaham over the last weekend, coming back with the impression that he will be sent home. Mr. Abdurrahman Yildirim, quoted here, is a very experienced financial columnist, who agreed with this conclusion, though he doesn’t cite sources. Finally, a very reliable journalist, Hurriyet’s Washington affairs correspondent Ms. Cansu Camlibel made the following comments in her latest article: “What is even more staggering is to learn that despite a continuous “release Brunson and then we will talk about Turkish demands and expectations” line from Washington, in the last weeks, the U.S. has indeed re-opened the door to providing some sort of leverage or face-saving to Ankara by fixing th...