October brought more Brownian motion to the boiling cauldron of Turkish politics, which makes it even more difficult to read the trends. We spot the slow-motion collapse of Erdogan’s power as well as the fortunes of the AKP-MHP alliance. The administration has lost its ability to control the national agenda and the hearts of an increasing number of voters on account of the ongoing economic distress and wide-spread cronyism.
Smelling victory, the opposition is broadening its ranks, proposing concrete solutions to leading economic problems and threatening civil servants and public-private partnership consortia with lawsuits and repudiation of debts.
Erdogan needs to engineer a swift and equitable economic recovery to have any chance in the next elections. However, he continues with obvious errors like insisting on rate cuts, which are destabilizing the currency, hurting more voters. The politics author fears Turkey is possibly facing a winter of social unrest and unpredictable political shocks.
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