CAATSA OUT, CHP 2.0 on deck

TURKEY - In Brief 13 Jul 2026 by Atilla Yesilada
Sunday’s weekly Tracker was supposed to be the victory lap of Politics Author (I), because two of his major predictions are on the verge of materialization. I expect Ankara to announce shipping the dreaded S-400 anti-missile systems to a third country to be yet named. This should in theory eliminate a major obstacle to the repeal of CAATSA sanctions. Secondly, CHP’s “other leader” Ozgur Ozel has gone public strongly hinting that he and his camp will soon launch a new party. Erdogan’s decision to get rid of S400s have been reported in several non-related news sources, but the strongest evidence came from staunchly pro-Erdogan columnist Mr Abdulkadir Selvi who dedicated two articles to the good tidings. Erdogan is meeting his party’s top decision making council today, where the decision about the fate of S-400 can be announced. Russia is yet to give the green light to the sale or shipment of S-400s to a third country, but I believe Putin is not going to put up a major resistance. Another obstacle to CAATSA being out of bi-lateral relations is certain to be a broad coalition in US Congress against invitation of Turkey to F-35 program. I’m not an expert on American Congressional politics, but my humble reckoning suggests the objectors will find it difficult to garner the majority to block the sale. Nevertheless, there could be a significant lag between the probable lifting of CAATSA and Turkey being reinvited to the F-35 jet fighter program. CHP’s “elected leader” Ozel resisted splinting from CHP this far, because the name has very strong brand recognition and he wanted to exhaust all legal avenues to force appointed leader Kilicdaroglu to call a new convention, where he w...

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