Politics: Campaign 2021 results forecast - Part Two
According to the latest GEA-ISA nationwide survey of registered voters, the June 6 congressional election is shaping up to be similar to the 2018 contest in which Andrés Manuel López was elected president and his supporters achieved a majority in the lower chamber of Congress. But there are some relevant differences, nevertheless.
A little over a week before the vote, it might seem that the contest has generated a lot less interest than in comparable contests, as a mere 39% of respondents said they are definitely going go to polling stations this coming Sunday, as opposed to the 52% average turnout of past midterms. But another 40% responded they will probably vote, and considering the record number of gubernatorial and mayoral races – which are known for stoking greater interest – we can expect stronger participation.
Both by party and coalition, the poll shows only marginal shifts in preferences compared to the 2018 elections, when AMLO’s followers won an unprecedented margin of victory. But those shifts tend to weigh against the president and in favor of opposition parties, although in the highly unlikely event that turnout were near 39%, the governing coalition would beat the opposition by 15 points. Even so, decisions by the country’s electoral authorities mean Morena cannot maneuver as it did in 2018 to artificially expand its majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
The extent to which the electorate has become polarized is illustrated by the two coalitions' commanding a combined 88% of preferences. However, with neither coalition likely to end with an advantage of anything greater than 3%, and the minor party Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) seeing its very marginal standing since 2019 surge from 1% to 6% in recent weeks, the MC could emerge as the wildcard in the new Congress if neither alliance wins an absolute majority.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report