Castillo struggles to survive; 2022 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.7%
President Pedro Castillo has surprised commentators by successfully fending off several attempts to oust him from office. In past reports, we have argued that the opposition in Congress does not have the votes to impeach the president. However, there is another, more subtle, reason why Castillo has been able to hold on to his office: his ability to generate confrontations that distract attention from his own subpar performance.
On April 25th, as part of this survival strategy, the president decided to submit draft legislation to Congress for a referendum on a Constitutional Assembly, a positive outcome that would allow the government to redraft the whole Constitution. At his inauguration speech on July 28th, Castillo vowed to observe the statutes of the current Constitution, and to ensure that any constitutional changes result from congressional consensus. However, his proposed legislation goes against this, by introducing the new Article 207, which is at odds with the rest of the Constitution.
Given that Castillo would be aware that his proposal would be defeated in Congress, why did he continue to push for the referendum on the Constitutional Assembly? In fact, the move served a different political objective: close to being forced to resign, Castillo, in submitting this legislation, regained some political support, by appealing to the left wing that wants constitutional change. However, this life-support system will have a limited duration. Moreover, for Perú Libre and its leader Vladimir Cerrón, it constituted a significant victory.
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