CBR Goals Contradictory and Unrealistic

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 26 Jun 2015 by Marcel Salikhov and Leonid Grigoriev
Executive Summary The ruble has entered a new stage of volatility and depreciation, with its weakening in early June triggered by a drop in oil prices, and the escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine. But the actions of the monetary authorities likewise played an important role. The Central Bank resumed direct FX interventions in mid-May, at $200 million per day, and has purchased more than $5 billion via the market since then. The Bank has essentially returned to targeting a nominal exchange rate, and is preventing the ruble from strengthening to under 50 per dollar. We think there’s a c...

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