10 Jun 2013
by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Executive SummaryConcern over inflation has led the Central Bank to signal a more intense monetary tightening cycle is in store, with the yield curve last week indicating the cycle might end with the SELIC rate at 9.25%. The high inflation is being driven by the steep increase in absorption in proportion to GDP and the reflections on the exchange rate of the changed international scenario, characterized by a combination of faster growth in the United States, leading to a stronger dollar, and the gradual decline of commodity prices, prompting a loss of Brazil's terms of trade.But the Central...
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