Chile's Constitutional Referendum: The Countdown Begins

CHILE - In Brief 29 Aug 2022 by Robert Funk

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With just under a week to go to Chile’s constitutional referendum, the political process which began on 18 October, 2019 is about to reach its zenith. Polls continue to show that a plurality of Chileans will reject the draft constitution on 4 September, although as other important votes elsewhere have shown (Brexit, Colombian peace process), voters are a volatile lot. This is especially true in the Chilean case, where this election will, for the first time in a long time, involve mandatory voting. This means that the electorate will look and behave differently from past elections, making polls somewhat less reliable. Despite the consistency of the Reject option reflected in the polls over the last few months, the truth is that the vote could go either way. This uncertainty is reflected in the exchange rate, which, despite Central Bank intervention, has rarely fallen below the 900 peso mark, still higher than at the worst point of the social explosion of 2019. But the polls may have it right. Their predictions are pretty much in line with the unpopularity of President Boric, who has actively supported the Approve campaign (government support for the constitutional proposal has raised some red flags), and of course presidential approval doesn’t depend on voter turnout. The Approve camp only seems to have two strong points. Young people (18-35 year olds) and residents of Greater Santiago. Again, turnout is key. This, together with the state of the economy, a dismal view of the Constituent Assembly, and the overall exhaustion with over two years of high intensity politics and protest, combine to make approval a risky affair. As if all those structural problems weren’t enou...