China’s GDP growth target for 2022 is 5.5 percent

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 10 Mar 2022 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this issue:

* Beijing announced a 5.5 percent GDP growth target for 2022. This was what I had expected, but well above what most economists believe the Chinese economy can manage.

* But I think they are wrong. In fact, the Chinese economy can manage much more if they are willing to expand non-productive investment by the required amount and allow the debt burden to climb even further. This 5.5 percent GDP growth target makes clear what I have been discussing for the past several months: Beijing will ease up on the property sector this year and will accelerate infrastructure investment as needed in order to achieve the growth target.

* Expect China’s debt-to-GDP ratio to rise by at least 3-5 percentage points this year, probably more, and China’s trade surplus to remain extremely high.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.