China's growth and the Two Sessions

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 12 Mar 2024 by Andrew Collier

Investors are hoping that China finds a magic wand to reach the 5 percent plus growth target for 2024. Following the Two Sessions, one of the tools the government plans to use is fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. However, there is limited room for fiscal growth given the significant debt burden on local governments, which are responsible for 80 percent of expenditure. Other proposals—an increase in consumption, a reform of the state system—are unlikely given Xi Jinping’s orientation toward state-led industrial investment.

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