China’s weak Q2 economic data

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 17 Jul 2023 by Andrew Collier

China reported weak economic Q2 2023 data. GDP rose 6.3 percent. This was below median forecasts of 7.1 percent by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, but many sell-side economists may have been bullish in their forecasts for political reasons.

Retail sales were anemic at 3.1 percent, and auto sales declined 1.1 percent. The only positive notes were manufacturing output, up 4.8 percent, and a surprising increase in Jan-June home sales of 3.7 percent. Property investment continued to decline, falling 7.9 percent. Fixed-asset investment, rose by 3.8 percent in the first six months of 2023, down from a rise of 4 per cent in the first five months of the year.

The National Bureau of Statistics warned that the unemployment rate for 16- 24-year-olds, which hit a new high of 21.3 percent in June, could continue to increase.

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