Coming Soon: Greater Instability

ARGENTINA - Report 15 Jan 2014 by Esteban Fernández Medrano and Domingo Cavallo

Executive SummaryArgentina is experiencing a typical inflation–devaluation spiral. The government’s fiscal deficit has climbed to 4% of GDP. Monetary issuance to close the gap explains 2013’s 32% expansion of the money base, though net monetary expansion was 22% for the year, due to the contractionary effect of FX interventions.The new economic team accelerated the rate of devaluation to an average of 6% monthly (or 100% annualized), in an effort to slow the decline of reserves, and to shrink the gap between the official and the parallel FX exchange rate. But that attempt failed. The FX gap...

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register