Conflict May Hit the Economy

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Forecast 04 Apr 2014 by Marcel Salikhov and Leonid Grigoriev
Executive Summary Russian growth this year will turn on the outcome of the conflict with the West over Crimea. The dispute has already caused a stock selloff, and a plunge in the ruble. The CBR increased its key rate by 150 bp, to limit capital outflows. The U.S. imposed a second round of economic sanctions on Russia March 20th, targeting particular individuals, such as influential Russian businessmen. Yet we think that these sanctions won’t hurt the Russian economy too much. Rather, longer-lasting effects of the confrontation will center on increased risk premiums and financing restriction...

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