Confusion will be my epitaph

TURKEY - Report 06 Oct 2023 by Murat Ucer

In this special report, we briefly review the latest macro developments and take a glance at the near-term issues and outlook in our favorite Q&A format.

Growth likely stayed sequentially positive in Q3, and a sharp slowdown or contraction should be avoided in Q4, thanks to significant fiscal expansion that is in store, with growth therefore ending the year around 4%. But it should slow sharply next year, or so we think, because “something has to give”.

After easing to 38.2% in June from a peak of 85.5% in October 2022, inflation began to rise again on the back of TL weakness, tax hikes and strong demand, reaching 61.5% in September, as core and service inflation rates hover at higher levels. We see inflation ending the year at around 70%, and don’t see why it should fall to the CBRT’s forecast of 33% by end-2024.

Now read on...

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