Consumer credit growth decelerated sharply amid a strong increase of household deposits in November – well before the recent key rate hike

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 21 Dec 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
Central Bank of Russia reported that the total credit to households grew by a mere 0.9% m-o-m in November, having decelerated sharply from 1.6% m-o-m in October and average monthly 2.0% seen in 2Q21 and 3Q21. At the same time, household deposits in November increased by 1.7% m-o-m, having fallen every month in 1H21 and staying almost flat from July to October. These numbers indicate that previous key rate hikes already in November had a strong impact on household behavior so that people became more interested in saving money than aggressively borrowing at a high rate. This change in behavior could also explain a sudden disinflation recorded in the first two weeks of December.Most puzzling, however, is that the CBR, having raised the key rate by another 100 bps last Friday, said nothing about such a dramatic slowdown in consumer lending and strong growth of household deposits. Such a hike looked excessive. No doubt, the Board of Directors should have been already aware of these numbers that were published today. Tomorrow, Rosstat will publish inflation statistics for another week and it will become clearer how fast and sustainable the disinflation is.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.