Cooling of the Labor Market and Perspectives for Consumption

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Oct 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September rose slightly, from 5.3% to 5.4%, still near the historic low levels where it has hovered for some time now. This could lead to the conclusion that the job market remains hot, favoring growth of consumption. But a deeper look at the information from the latest IBGE survey results clearly shows the job market has been cooling off, meaning consumption should only show modest growth. First of all, the data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME) show a significant deceleration in the growth of household employment. Graph 1 reveals that at...

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