Core Inflation Drops, Likely Temporarily

TURKEY - Report 03 Apr 2018 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 1% in March, exactly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI rate easing slightly -- basically due to rounding -- to 10.2%, from 10.3% in February. Producer prices rose sharply however, to 14.3% from 13.7%, on the back of rising energy prices, suggesting that cost-push pressures remain elevated (Graph 1; Table 1). In terms of monthly contributions, food and transportation categories drove CPI-inflation slightly higher, which was more or less offset by drops in clothing and a few select service categories, notably culture and entertainment (Graphs 2-3). As a result, core inflation, by most common definition (the C-index), dropped relatively noticeably to a 12-month rate of 11.4%, from 11.9% (Table 2).

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