Costa Rica: Fiscal Challenges

CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 31 Jul 2015 by Francisco de Paula Gutiérrez and Felix Delgado
Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for the next 17 months is for modest growth, and relative stability. But fiscal vulnerability will present challenges for controlling inflation, interest rates and the exchange rate. By yearend, we expect to see modest economic growth (2.3% y/y); low headline inflation (2%); a decline in the current account deficit (to $1.38 billion, from $2.37 billion in 2014); a stable exchange rate (at 539 colones per dollar); and an increase in net foreign reserves (rising by $600 million). But we’ll also see a higher fiscal deficit (6.2% of GDP), a higher ce...

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