COVID-19 and poverty in Turkey
This Special Brief by our political analyst is an attempt to reconcile macro-economic data that shows an economy that has suffered minor-to-moderate harm from the year-long COVID-19 epidemic and the rather conflicting information coming out of numerous polls and anecdotal sources suggesting poverty has expanded substantially throughout the epidemic.
The contrast between macro data and the alternative evidence presented in this Brief has very significant repercussions in economic and policy analysis. President Erdogan is determined not to step back from “controlled normalization”, which is clearly escalating the outbreak, potentially putting the economically all-important tourism season in jeopardy.
Moreover, polls report a rising negative correlation between COVID-19 induced economic stress and AKP-MHP support.
The alternative evidence presented here suggests that Erdogan’s path will lead to even higher levels of poverty, potentially undermining economic recovery and political stability.
The author doesn’t expect the evidence presented by him to substitute for official data, but thinks its starkly different and pessimistic conclusions ought to be considered in producing forecasts and opinions about Turkey’s fate for the rest of the year.
Now read on...
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