CPI peaked out in April (+16.4% y-o-y)

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 07 May 2015 by Marcel Salikhov
Russian inflation has finally stabilized. CPI data for April showed long-awaited decline in inflation. Consumer prices increased 16.4% y-o-y (+0.5% m-o-m) compared to 16.7% y-o-y (+1.2% m-o-m) in March. Major contribution to lower inflation came from food prices that increased only 0.3% m-o-m vs +1.6% in March. Stronger RUB probably helped to push back fruits and vegetables prices (-3.7% m-o-m) that surged 67% in the previous 6 months. Start of recession in 1Q2015 and weaker domestic demand helped to stabilize services inflation (+0.0% m-o-m). Non-food prices increased 0.9% m-o-m vs +1.4% in March. So April decline in inflation was broad based. It is welcoming news as lower inflation would make CBR more confident in rate cutting. If May inflation comes in the same range (about 0.5% m-o-m) we think that another 150 b.p. cut would be announced on next meeting (June, 15th). At the same time due to high base we estimate that CPI will not fall below 11% in 2015 (Dec/Dec). CBR in last press-release on monetary policy decision stated that expects inflation to reach 8% in next April. It’s a reasonable forecast based on current trends.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.