Cry, Correa, cry
“Llori Correa Llori” was the message that flooded social media after Guadalupe Llori – whose last name resembles “llora” or "cry" – was elected president of the National Assembly. Llori, a member of the Pachakutik party, was persecuted and incarcerated by Correa during his presidency. Thus, she represents the hardest opposition to Correismo. Most probably, she played an important role in the failure of an attempted Pachakutik-UNES pact to capture the presidency and vice presidencies of the Assembly.
After two nearly violent sessions, Izquierda Democratica obtained one of the vice presidencies, and Democracia Si, which placed just one legislator, captured the second vice presidency, proving the historical political strength of “independents”. Social Christians, after a strong fight to place Henry Kronfle as president of the assembly, abandoned the session angry and empty-handed, and with one fewer legislator, when Cesar Rohn, one of its more notable members, left the party, expressing his disagreement with its virtual agreement with UNES.
CREO emerged on one side debilitated after these turbulent sessions because its support of Packakutik came late. Packakutik will remember this. But on the other hand, the rupture of the agreement with Social Christians allows Lasso to fulfill his promise of never walking side by side with corruption. A pact between CREO and UNES would have left Lasso without moral grounding with his electorate.
The National Assembly now has five political blocs: UNES (49), Pachakutik (27), Social Christian and allies (19?), BAN–CREO and Independents (24), and Izquierda Democratica (18).
The aftermath of this weekend leaves a legislature that is in the hands of center-to-leftist groups. The CAL is the committee that reviews and approves every bill before it goes to the plenary. The CAL has seven members: the president, the two vice presidents and four remaining members. Thus, for the next four years, this committee has two legislators from Pachakutik and one from UNES, all of whom who are clearly leftist; two members from ID, who are center-left oriented; one member from Democracia Si, who inclines to the left but who is in alliance with CREO; and one member from CREO.
In this fashion, the first 100 days of government will look very much like a third electoral round for Guillermo Lasso. He will have to fight for a stronger political alliance in the Assembly to capture positions in the most important specialized commissions that will be elected on Tuesday.
But he will also have to deliver on his promise of nine million Ecuadorians vaccinated, while trying to solve the problems caused by the education and tax reform bills. While the destiny of the former is in the hands of the Constitutional Court, the latter awaits an executive veto, or to come into effect otherwise.
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