Culmination of the Kremlin’s staging

UKRAINE - In Brief 19 Feb 2022 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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We are approaching the culmination of the staging with Russian troops’ deployment. Russians have started evacuating civilians from occupied territories of Donbass but ordered all men of military age to stay in place. Also Russians are bringing heavy armor closer to the frontlines in Donbas. These developments look exactly the same as it was on the eve of Russian invasion in Georgia in 2008. We expect heavy shelling and provocations over the upcoming weeks in Donbas. The main goal is to arrange a casus belli to unleash a swift attack in some direction and force Ukrainian authorities into a political surrender (like direct negotiations with "representatives" of occupied territories). Chances for a military success of this plan (swift and successful operation) are under a big question given the level of Ukraine’s army readiness. However, the potential dovish reaction of Volodymyr Zelenskiy is a point of concern. But if Zelenskiy does not flinch, and Ukraine's army copes with this attack -- Russia will find itself in a very complicated stance. Thus we see that Kremlin is still playing a complicated game trying to push Ukrainian authorities to makes a mistake. A military scenario is not secured and will be launched only if Kremlin receives the reaction they have been waiting for already for several months.