​Decelerating growth in 3Q21 prompts further moderation in 2022

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 02 Sep 2021 by Alexander Kudrin

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Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade (retail and wholesale combined) was up y-o-y by 6.8% and 6.7% in July and 7M21. Output in the freight transportation sector was up by 9.1% and 5.7% over the same period. Retail sales were up by 4.7% and 9.3%, paid consumer services were up 20.2% and 19.4%, agriculture was up by 0.9% and 0.4%. Construction activity increased by 9.3% and 7.1%. Earlier Rosstat reported that industrial output increased by 6.8% and 4.4%. All numbers as for July and 7M21 y-o-y.Rosstat earlier reappraised industrial statistics have increased the 2020 data, which caused a kind of statistical slowdown in the industry this year. Similarly, output in the transportation sector was also revised from 1Q20 onwards. More revisions may come later.Rosstat also reported preliminarily that cumulative inflation in August based on weekly statistics reached 0.16%. The official inflation number (calculated on a broad consumption basket) will be published on September 8. However, it appears that inflation in August was higher than it could have been as the government started allocating a kind of “election bonuses” to various groups of population ahead of the forthcoming Duma election. Therefore, the seasonal drop in agricultural products was outweighed by this kind of consumption stimulus.On top of that, consumer credit growth remained strong in July as the CBR reported it was up by 1.8% m-o-m. Even though consumer credit growth decelerated compared to previous months when it was 2% and above m-o-m, the July number looks high. Overall, statistics published in July and August points to some ...