Decent economic performance in 2023

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 18 Jan 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2023, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP covering about 60% of activity in the main segments of the economy) grew by 5.1%, implying that the country’s GDP could have expanded by over 5%. In 9M23, GDP grew by 4.9% y-o-y. The industry expanded by 4.3% (4.6% in the mining segment and 4.1% in manufacturing). Construction grew by 13.3%. Transportation and storage, as an SNA category, was up by 6.9%. Cargo transportation turnover grew by 3.1%, while passenger transportation turnover increased by 10.3%. The trade segment increased by 11.3% as its wholesale and retail constituencies grew by 12.8% and 7.7% Communications as a whole, grew by 7.1% (internet communications increased by 16.2%). Meanwhile, last year's robust growth in retail sales points to a rapid expansion of consumer demand, which may have visibly exceeded 5%. The Bureau reported that last year, investment in production capacity grew by 13.7%. Therefore, it looks as though net exports as an SNA category remained a main drag on the Kazakh economy last year. On the production side, agriculture monopolized the role of a main drag as it contracted by 7.7% due to a bad harvest, implying that in 2024, it may grow fast from a low base. We plan to come up with a more detailed assessment of the Kazakh economic growth in a few days.