Deficits return to 2016 levels on oil crash and coronavirus

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 12 Mar 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

* ​We see deficits ranging from about 3% of GDP (Qatar) to 13% (Oman) with oil averaging $44.
* This incorporates assumptions about policy measures and coronavirus impacts.
* The region’s overall deficit could change by about ±3% if the annual average oil price is ±$5.
* Oman and Bahrain are the most stressed, with Oman likely to need a regional/IMF bailout if it can’t adjust sufficiently or raise enough debt.
* The region as a whole could look to issue a record $50-60bn in bonds to part-finance deficits.

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