​Delta watch 3 (ECQ starts)

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 06 Aug 2021 by Romeo Bernardo

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On the eve of Metro Manila’s two-week enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) that begins today and ends on August 20, authorities decided to tighten restrictions as well in other key cities and provinces that account for over 40% of GDP. (Table 1) Government is well aware of the economic cost of the latest lockdown. The planning agency told congress that it will shave well over 1ppt off this year’s GDP growth target of 6-7%. Nevertheless, the shelter-at-home policy and shuttering of businesses are deemed necessary to avert potentially explosive infections following more local transmission of the delta variant of the coronavirus. (Table 2) In the meantime, government plans to make the most out of the downtime by vaccinating as many residents of high-risk areas as its vaccine supply allows.Latest official updates show that over 10 million people, about 9% of the population, have been fully vaccinated as of August 4. Vaccination has speeded up with daily jabs nationwide exceeding 700k earlier this month. In Metro Manila, which is being prioritized, daily injections have topped 200k with city mayors targeting to reach 250k daily jabs while on lockdown. Government is expecting a steady stream of vaccine deliveries this month, including the 3M doses of the Moderna vaccine donated by the U.S. this week. (Table 3) The country saw daily infections jumped from an average of less than 8k over the past week to over 10k today. The weekly average represents a 33% increase over the previous week. Hospital bed occupancy in Metro Manila has also been rising, now above the 60%, “moderate risk” level.TABLE 1.Share of economy by type of community quarantineSource: NEDA presentation on House ...