​Delta watch 4 (Restrictions relaxed… somewhat)

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 20 Aug 2021 by Romeo Bernardo

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Likely swayed by economic managers’ concerns, the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) relaxed mobility restrictions in Metro Manila, allowing the nation’s capital to transition from enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) to modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ). Earlier in the week, after rumors circulated that city mayors wanted to keep their jurisdictions under ECQ, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) announced a significant reduction in its GDP growth target for the year, from 6-7% to 4-5%. The shift to mECQ, which allows more businesses to operate at reduced capacity and more workers to go out, will start on Saturday and continue, for now, until the end of the month.Although the number of daily infections nationwide has exceeded its previous peak (Chart 1), cases in Metro Manila is still below the earlier peak (3,592 7d average as of August 19 vs 5,549 in April). Moreover, the numbers have plateaued a bit in recent days although a clear trend has yet to emerge. Meanwhile, ICU occupancy is still above the critical 70% level despite the makeshift beds that have been quickly put up. Given the high transmissibility of Delta, the leading variant in the country based on the latest genome sequencing, the risk exists that numbers may turn up anew with increased mobility under mECQ.Nevertheless, the IATF’s decision to shift to mECQ appears to be in line with its policy from hereon to avoid blunt lockdowns over wide territory, and instead make local governments carry the burden of doing more localized interventions for controlling surges through prevention, detention, isolation, treatment, and reintegration (PDITR) strategies. Capacity and funding gaps to me...