Politics: A demographic look at the race
The presidential contest is now in full swing, with the three major contenders and a single independent anxious to consolidate support in key constituencies and woo voters away from their rivals. They all begin with high levels of name recognition, but none of them are viewed positively by most of the electorate. Ricardo Anaya fares best, as only 19% more voters say they have a negative opinion of him than those who view him favorably, followed by López Obrador (-22% on balance), and both José Antonio Meade and independent Margarita Zavala at -30%.
But most have staked out their own demographic bases, and several entail major shifts from past trends. One notable example is the extent to which Anaya enjoys the support of more than 68% of Mexicans with the greatest purchasing power, a constituency that has traditionally aligned with the PRI, whose nominee José Antonio Meade is only polling 7.8% in that segment of high net worth individuals.
In contrast, in northern Mexico, which traditionally has included major electoral bastions for Anaya’s PAN, the former party chairman is trailing Meade by 8 points, and is only barely ahead of López Obrador, in a region where neither AMLO nor the left had fared well in past elections. And in the south, where the PRI has long been a dominant force, Meade is trailing AMLO by 17 points and Anaya by 10.
The demographic breakout of polling information such as the GEA-ISA quarterly survey that serves as the basis for this week’s analysis, is the sort of data campaign the various campaigns are mining to fine-tune their messaging and reformulate strategies. A case in point was Ricardo Anaya’s decision to try and rebuild support in the northern border area with a call to lower the VAT rate in that region, and to launch his campaign with a hackathon to magnify his image as the youngest person in the race.
We’ll have to wait and see how much in the coming weeks the candidates continue to try to remold their campaign imagery and proposals to attract demographics in which their support is lagging.
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