Despite a six-point drop, Bolsonaro remains the favorite

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 26 Oct 2018 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

The new Datafolha poll on the presidential race shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) has dropped from 18 to 12 percentage points. The six-point reduction in Bolsonaro’s lead is still not a threat to his probability of winning, for the following reasons:

1) Because the runoff round is a battle of rejection ratings, it is unlikely that Haddad will be able to turn the tables on Bolsonaro because of his own high rejection rating (52%), which is higher than Bolsonaro’s (44%). Even though the PSL candidate’s rejection increased three points compared to the previous poll, while the PT candidate’s rejection decreased by two points, anti-PT sentiment is still very strong. ...

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