Despite the low CPI print, we do not expect a rate cut

ISRAEL - Report 16 Dec 2019 by Jonathan Katz

Although inflation in November surprised on the downside, reaching -0.4% m/m and 0.3% y/y, a rate cut is far from certain. The CA surplus is likely to surpass 4% GDP this year and improve further in 2020. Israeli savings institutions sold FX of 1.2bn USD (net) in October and 5bn YTD, supporting shekel appreciation. Most leading indicators in Israel suggest steady growth ahead. In politics, elections will be held on March 2, and fiscal policy will be restrictive in 2020 until a budget is approved.

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