Detailed forecast for the Argentine economy 2019 and 2020

ARGENTINA - Forecast 07 Feb 2019 by Domingo Cavallo and Esteban Fernández Medrano

​This report complements the first quarterly forecast, entitled, “Argentina 2019: at a crossroad again” offering detailed projections for the most relevant variables for one of the three scenarios described in that forecast.

We assume that Macri’s government will be able to fully implement the macroeconomic program that received strong support by the IMF in September 2018. So far, in the last three months of 2018 and, particularly in the first month of 2019, the leading indicators show that the economy is performing as expected by the designers of the macroeconomic plan. The exchange rate has stabilized, inflation is decreasing and the level of economic activity, even if still very low, shows some timid indicators that it may recover by the third quarter, with already some spurts of growth starting in the second quarter, particularly in agriculture and agro-business.

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