​Detention of retired admirals: A test for Erdogan’s intentions

TURKEY - In Brief 06 Apr 2021 by Atilla Yesilada

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104 retired admirals issued a declaration warning that abandoning the Montreux Maritime Treaty could irrevocably harm Turkey’s sovereignty. This is the angle and its connection to Canal Istanbul that the foreign press and experts continue to focus on. 10 of the admirals are detained, with four being questioned in police stations, but the detentions had nothing to do with their views on the Treaty. They had also objected to the photos of a serving admiral praying in a tekke (Sunni temple) in full religious garb and revisions to the bylaws of Military Academies which eliminated membership in a tariqat (Sunni religious order) as grounds for disqualification or discharge. These accusation infuriated Erdogan, also helping him spin the declaration into a coup ultimatum. What interests me in this incident is that it serves as a test case for Erdogan’s intentions going forward. To recall the debate among Turkish pundits and in our tiny “house divided”, there are two paths for the President to follow. First he moves to the center, allowing CBRT to raise rates and cutting deals with US-EU to avert sanctions. This is the old pragmatic Erdogan, and I am looking for clues in his daily acts and decisions to test my hypothesis. The majority asserts that he is going to become more imperial by the day, moving towards a formal one-man, one-party regime by widening the crack-down on the opposition and all forms of dissent, which means lower rates, using CBRT and state bank reserves to stabilize the currency and further fraction with the West, possibly until snap elections later in the year. I think, at this juncture, the detention of the admirals modestly supports my case of a pragmatic ...