Difficult Days Ahead

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 Aug 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore

Executive Summary The fall of food prices will still reduce inflation for a few weeks, but the pass-through of the weaker exchange rate to consumer prices will soon raise current inflation. Besides this, the government has exhausted its arsenal of actions on the prices of some specific products that for the time being have been able to keep inflation artificially low. But excluding administered prices, the annual growth of the IPCA is 8%. The risk is that lower trade surpluses and shrinking financial flows will put more pressure on the real. In this case the pressure on tradables prices can...

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