Disinflation amidst political turmoil
The final battle between Erdogan and CHP began Saturday, when three more CHP mayors were detained. Erdogan holds all the cards against a defiant Ozgur Ozel in this winner-takes-all wrestling match, which will soon witness Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas and Ozel himself being eliminated from politics, the politics author thinks. Only mass unrest can stop Erdogan, which is not his base-case scenario.
After two false starts, PKK might finally start disarmament next week, in return for a bill that will allow its insurgents to live in Turkey and participate in politics. If disarmament gets underway, negotiations to draft a new constitution may commence as early as autumn, though chances of success are still very low.
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