Does Kremlin start a face-saving withdrawal?

UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Feb 2022 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
On February 15 Russian Parliament addressed Vladimir Putin with a request to recognize occupied territories of Ukraine (Donbas and Luhansk) as independent states. This step might be a first move for a face-saving de-escalation of current tension. After raising the stakes so high Vladimir Putin could not simply return his troops back home without any prey. Something should be presented to Russian audience as a victory to reinstate his power. One of the possible scenarios of such a victory that we considered was effective integration of the occupied territories into Russia. De-facto there will change nothing, however, formally it might be presented to Russians as expansion of territories. As a first step in this scenario Russia will have to recognize the occupied territories of Donbas and Luhansk as independent states. After that the governments of the state will request official military support and Russian troops will be officially deployed to the occupied territories (in fact they are already there). And the final move is a Crimea-style referendum with request to join Russia. For now, Vladimir Putin is waiting for reaction of Kyiv on this step, probably, anticipating some changes in negotiation position of Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Or, maybe, Kremlin hopes for a public unrest in response to the prospects of a full-fledged annexation of Donbas and Luhansk. However, after months of tension it’s very unlikely for official Kyiv to react roughly on this move. Also it does not look that public might start any turmoil since in minds of millions of Ukrainians Donbas and Luhansk have been lost already eight years ago. So officially Kyiv, for sure, will object diplomatically to the ...

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