Does Xi Jinping control China’s economy?

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 08 Jun 2018 by Andrew Collier

Xi Jinping is widely viewed as China’s strongest leader since Deng Xiao Ping thirty years ago. He has consolidated control over the Party, rammed home an anti-corruption campaign, and pledged backing for the expansion of the state sector through programs such as “One Belt One Road” and “Made in China 2025.”

But behind the flagship programs and bold statements lies a much more troubling picture. Due to a combination of fiscal constraints, the overwhelming rise of shadow banking, and the sheer size of the Chinese economy, Xi Jinping is more like a bull rider in a rodeo than a president with his finger on the pulse of government. In fact, Xi and his top economic advisors have tacitly acknowledged their inability to directly control the economy by devising policy workarounds to keep the economy moving. These policies have both a political and an economic component. We trace this structure to a combination of fiscal constraints, the rise of shadow banking, and the sheer size of the Chinese economy.

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