Dog days of summer

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 27 Apr 2023 by Romeo Bernardo

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Alert levels are expected to go up again over the Luzon grid as the hot summer months test the grid’s thin reserves. Data[1] show that from the last week of April through the third week of June, the Luzon grid is forecast to be on yellow alert. This means that the gap between supply and demand will be less than what is required for grid stability. Thus, any unplanned outage in one of the large power plants or a combination of smaller plants could result in supply falling below demand (i.e., red alerts) and thus blackouts. Yellow alerts are a recurring problem in the hot and dry April to June months. The issues are by now well-known: (a) demand from households and firms rises and peaks at about 20% or so above the cooler months of January to February, (b) energy outputs from hydroelectric plants drop, could be halved, because water flows from rivers are less and stored water in the dams are lowest, (c) there are missing infrastructure to allow the grid to tap surplus power from the Mindanao grid or from stranded power plants, as well as (d) lack of energy storage facilities for solar and wind farms to enable these to continue supplying power when the sun is not shining or the wind blowing. The coming weeks will be no different from earlier years as industry players come together to ensure that the yellow alerts do not turn red. The typical action plan involves on the supply side, plant maintenance done before the summer to ensure peak performance during the critical months, and on the demand side, signing up more large power consumers to the Interruptible Load Program (ILP). These consumers have their own power generators and could voluntarily disconnect themselves from...