Don’t bet on inflation peaking in May

TURKEY - Report 05 Apr 2021 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 1.1%, m/m, in March, broadly in line with the consensus, with the 12-month rate rising further to 16.2%, from 15.6% in February. Domestic-PPI inflation was 4.1% in the month, which led to a more dramatic increase in the 12-month rate, to a whopping 31.2%, up from 27.1% in the previous month (Graph 1; Table 1). Notably, the wedge between the two is at near all-time highs (comparable to post-Pastor crisis peaks), which attests to a continuation of the cost-push pressures, driven by several factors, like the recent lira weakness, the surge in intermediate input prices because of the disruption to supply chains, as well as higher commodity prices.

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