Double-Digit Inflation, Our New Reality

TURKEY - Report 04 Dec 2017 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by a more than expected 1.5% in November (versus consensus and roughly our forecasts of around 1.1%), which raised the 12-month rate sharply higher to 13%, up from 11.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a hefty 2% in the month, with the 12-month PPI rate staying broadly unchanged from October, albeit at the sharply elevated level of 17.3%. Food prices shot up significantly as well, with the 12-month rate rising to one of the highest levels on record -- which, incidentally, played a key role in our forecast error -- but non-food price inflation, by our estimates, rose considerably as well (Table 1; Graphs 1-3).

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