Down the rabbit hole (again)

PHILIPPINES - Report 03 Mar 2023 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

We enter 2023 as if going down a rabbit hole, not quite sure if surprises ahead will be the pleasant or biting sort. Although global growth is still expected to weaken, China’s re-opening offers hope of larger rebound, especially in tourism. Too, although financial conditions remain tight, inflation high and macro policy space limited, receding memories of the pandemic hold out the chance of stronger growth momentum from residual pent-up demand.

For now, we bump up our GDP growth forecast for 2023 by 0.5% to 5.5%, slower than last year’s high 7.6% growth clip and lower than government’s 6-7% growth target. This report examines the lingering effects of the pandemic on the economy, the causes of rising inflation, progress in fiscal consolidation and developments in external balances. We also look at government’s moves to forge closer security ties with the U.S. and what they mean for the Marcos administration’s goal of friending all.

Now read on...

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