Easter break

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 13 Apr 2022 by Romeo Bernardo

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The Philippines will take its annual Lenten break beginning Thursday. We leave our readers with two thoughts on the economy’s short-term outlook. The latest official survey by Pulse Asia conducted in mid-March, which showed Vice President Leni Robredo’s voter share jumping 9ppt to 24%, has invigorated her supporters to intensify their house-to-house push in hopes of winning over supporters of the other candidates. Although the VP’s recent gains have made the presidential campaign more interesting, political pundits continue to eye the wide gap between her and Mr. Marcos. The survey in March showed Mr. Marcos still enjoying a majority of voter support (56%), which is just 4ppt below his share in February. While March survey results in past elections tended to have good predictive value of election results, many acknowledge that the campaign momentum is on VP Robredo’s side. Will this time be different? With less than a month to go until election day, does she have enough time to catch up? And if she manages to significantly narrow the gap towards the homestretch, would a close count lead to a repeat of the 2016 electoral protest (between the same two candidates but for the VP position) and increase business uncertainty?Earlier this month, both the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released their respective economic outlooks, with GDP growth forecasts for the Philippines mostly steady, i.e., 5.7% for the WB (down from 5.8% last October) and 6% for the ADB (no change vs December forecast).The steady outlooks weighed the positive impact of increased economic activity following the lifting of covid restrictions against the negative impacts of slower globa...